Weekly research
Signal feed — independent-operator panel
Curated insights derived from 197,643 independent and local multi-unit operators. Delivered to subscribers T+1 via the Signal Exchange API and email. All readings exclude national chains by design — these are the small-business signals invisible to chain card panels.
PlatformJun 10, 2026
DASH share of independent-operator delivery GMV reaches 54.1% — +220 bps YoY, taking share from direct channels
DoorDash routed $612.5M of GMV through panel independents in the trailing 7 days — 54.1% of delivery-platform GMV ($1.27B across DASH, UBER, TOST, OLO, ezCater), up from 51.9% a year ago. Direct/phone delivery channels gave back ~2 points over the same period as small operators leaned harder on aggregator demand. Signal feed content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
CommodityJun 9, 2026
Independent pizzerias: cheese-weighted menu prices +4.8% in 6 weeks — pass-through of Class III milk rally
Same-store menu prices on cheese-heavy items at 14,200 independent pizzerias rose 4.8% over six weeks, tracking the Class III milk futures spike. Pass-through lag: ~22 days vs. CME settle. Implication: an early read on food-away-from-home dairy inflation that BLS CPI won't capture until next print.
BrandJun 6, 2026
CELH share of energy category in independent c-stores +310 bps QoQ, outpacing tracked-channel scanner data
Celsius captured 8.4% of the energy-drink category dollar share inside the panel's 27,670 independent c-stores in Q2, +310 bps vs. Q1. Untracked-channel scanner data (Circana/IRI) shows +180 bps — the gap suggests independents are over-indexing on Celsius adoption versus the chain-store universe.
Operator healthJun 5, 2026
Independent FSR net churn in Midwest panel ticks up to 1.9% — leading small-business stress signal
Net panel churn (closings minus openings) at independent full-service restaurants in IL, IN, OH, MI, WI rose to 1.9% in May, up from 1.5% in April and the highest Midwest reading since Feb 2024. Concentrated in casual-dining and breakfast-daypart concepts. Watch for confirmation in next NRA Restaurant Performance Index release.
DistributorJun 3, 2026
SYY-routed volume +6.2% YoY in panel — ahead of Sysco's next print
Estimated Sysco-routed broadline volume through panel operators reached $1.24B in the trailing 28 days, +6.2% YoY. Lead correlation to Sysco's reported US Foodservice revenue is r² = 0.93 with ~6-week lead. Implies Sysco's next quarterly print should land at or above the high end of consensus.
ChannelMay 30, 2026
Independent café morning daypart +7.1% YoY — coffee category gaining share at the expense of QSR breakfast
Transactions at independent cafés between 6–10am rose 7.1% YoY in the trailing 4 weeks. Avg ticket up 3.2% on premium espresso-drink mix shift. Concurrent decline in independent QSR breakfast transactions (-1.4%) suggests share migration, not category expansion.
BrandMay 28, 2026
STZ Modelo Especial single-can velocity in independent c-stores +9.4% YoY — accelerating from +6.1% in Q1
Single-serve Modelo Especial cans cleared 4.9M units across panel c-stores in May, up 9.4% YoY. Pricing held flat at $3.29 avg, so growth is pure volume. Constellation's beer segment guidance assumed mid-single-digit volume growth — actuals are tracking above.
Signal feed content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.